Fallacy of Averages – Sunday, August 11, 1940
For some time a comment has been urging itself concerning the fallacy of averages. We are sometimes inclined to look with a good deal of smug satisfaction upon columns of assorted figures which seem to prove that all is well with the average. But such statistical indulgences seldom take all of the facts into consideration. This elusive individual known as the average is rarely found. And the fallacy of averages comes when we fail to take into account what is above and below the average. The fact that the average man isn’t starving, doesn’t tell us anything about the man who is starving. The fact that the average man tries to meet his just obligations doesn’t improve that great class of men and women who do not meet their obligations. The fact that the average man tries to observe the commandments of the Lord and the rules of life doesn’t give us any picture of those who break all of the commandments and ignore all the rules.
The fact that the average man can be reasonably well trusted doesn’t help us with those who cannot be trusted. The fact that the average rainfall in the country is adequate, doesn’t void the fact that there may be floods in some places and burning drouth in others. The fact that the mean temperature of a certain town is 70 degrees doesn’t take into account the fact that it may be sub-zero in winter and unbearably hot in summer. The Savior of the world once preached a sermon on the fallacy of averages when He spoke of the ninety and nine and the one lost sheep. If the Good Shepherd had been content with averages, He would have been content in the knowledge that most of His flock was safe and He would not have gone forth to seek the one who was lost. If parents rear a family of four children and three of them live according to the best things in life and one of them is a disgrace to all that is considered to be good., it might be said statistically that the average of that family is acceptable – but that does not remove the heartache to parents and the sorrow to others; caused by the one who lowered the average. The Father of us all has said: “For behold, this is my work and my glory — to bring to pass the immortality and eternal life of man” –all men. (Pearl of Great Price, Moses 1:39) The fact that the average child of God may realize in a measure those things which God has prepared for them will not satisfy Him whose children all men are. There are still the wayward and the disobedient to be redeemed. We are not justified therefore, in taking weak refuge in smug columns of figures that tell us what is true on an average, because averages are fallible, and above them and below them are many things yet to be considered and accounted for and corrected.
August 11, 1940
Broadcast Number 0,573